The View From Here

U.S. to enter 2010 with major questions about terrorism and foreign policy

1. The U.S. faces some tremendous foreign policy questions in 2010.  Here’s a look ahead.

2. Janet Napolitano, director of Homeland Security, writes today that the U.S. “is determined to find and fix the vulnerabilities” in airport security.

3. Reviews of this president will come pouring in as we reach Obama’s one-year mark.  In the face of declining popularity numbers, Leslie Gelb writes about the three things the president must do to avoid the fate of Jimmy Carter. 
4. Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab's foiled attack on Christmas Day has drawn plenty of comparisons to Richard Reid’s similar failure.  Now the Bush and Obama presidential responses are drawing similar analysis.

Ending the decade on a somber note

With the president’s decision to escalate the war in Afghanistan and
an attempted Christmas day attack on a plane headed for Detroit, the
last month of 2009 was a somber reminder of what defined the decade:
terrorism.

 The end of the year is traditionally a time of reflection. But the
tumultuous way the U.S. closed out the past ten years leaves many
Americans wanting to look forward, not back.

The latest chapter in the war on terror seems eerily similar to shoe
bomber Richard Reed's failed attack eight years earlier. Umar Farouk
Abdulmutallab, the man suspected of Friday's attempted explosion,
carried on him the same highly explosive compound as Reed tried to
use.

Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said this morning on Meet
The Press that it was too early to tell if this incident can be called
a security failure or if the suspect is a part of Al Qaeda.  Though
she would not acknowledge if negligence may have played a role in the
incident, it is clear that questions will continued to be asked about
the safety procedures of foreign airports.

Robert Gibbs, White House press secretary, then joined me and echoed
Napolitano's hesitance to speculate and the Obama administration's
commitment to review no-fly list procedures.  Like many Americans, the
president is curious how something like this could happen again.
Gibbs told me Obama wants "a review to ensure-- and figure out why--
an individual with the chemical explosive that he had on him could get
onto an airliner in Amsterdam and fly into this country."

And while we will close 2009 on a frightening note, Mayor Michael
Bloomberg, NBC's Andrea Mitchell, Gov. Deval Patrick and former
Speaker Newt Gingrich shared some positive predictions for the next
decade.  You can find it all in our Web site.

Happy New Year.

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The health care debate on MTP

It is unclear how close Congress is to getting a health care bill to the president, but what is apparent is how criticism of the legislation is gaining momentum.  The storyline last week was the White House vs. former Democratic party chair Howard Dean – and I got both perspectives this morning on “Meet the Press.” 

The White House responded to attacks on reform by stressing cost control and increased accessibility.  David Axelrod, senior adviser to the president, said on MTP:

Still, even Axelrod admitted the proposed legislation would not necessarily reduce costs, only contain them.

Dean’s critique has been that a health care bill without a public option won’t bring reform.  Asked if he would vote for the bill, Dean said, “My position is let's see what they add to this bill and make it work.  If they can make it work without a public option, I'm all ears.  I don't think that's possible.”

 

Axelrod told me, “I respect Howard Dean.  I think he's someone who cares passionately about this issue… just think when you look at the bill in its totality, it doesn't square up with his critique.”

 

 

Dean’s comments are exactly what the president doesn’t need just before Senate Democrats try to pass the legislation.  The criticism from Dean, a medical doctor, has resonated strongly with the liberal base of the party that has been disheartened by Obama’s perceived abandonment of the public option.

Plus, a big question that the White House is trying to downplay is how this health care battle will effect Democrats in 2010.  Axelrod told me, "I think we're gonna have a good result next-- next November.  And I'm not gonna predict-- where we are.  Again, we're governing through difficult times.  I think we're gonna be in a better place.  And what I suggest is that you guys-- wait until next October to talk about polls, when they're actually germane to an election.  Because that's-- that's an eternity away."

It's a view many feel is overly optimistic. Markos Moulitsas, founder of DailyKos.com, said polling used for his Web site shows 86 percent of Republicans are likely to turn out to vote next year, compared to 56 percent of Democrats.  "If we have numbers like that we're going to get killed in 2010," Moulitsas said.

Catch additional insights from Joe Scarborough, Tavis Smiley and Ed Gillespie here.

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Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

The difference a year makes...a recap of today's show on the economy

This time last year I was talking to Chuck Todd and Mary Mitchell about Rob Blagojevich.  We then hit on an article Todd had written about how Obama “is enjoying a bigger honeymoon than his predecessor ever did.”

The difference a year makes. Today, Blagojevich is at most a blip on the political radar and any Obama honeymoon has been over for months.  On my one-year anniversary behind the “Meet the Press” desk, there was one word on everyone’s mind: jobs.   Christina Romer, chair of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, joined me with insight into when the jobs may come back.  Here is what she said when I asked her if unemployment will go up before it comes down:

“It-- it could well.  I mean, especially if you talk to a lot of the-- the analysts.  What they say is actually once we start to recover, the chance that some of those seven to ten million people that have become discouraged workers, dropped out of the labor force, they may well come back in.  And that would cause it to go up a bit.  But then, you know, once we're firmly growing again, once employment growth is again-- coming again, we will see the unemployment rate start to come down.”

 

And the question that is on everyone’s mind: When will this all be over?  Here is Dr. Romer’s response:

“It's gonna take a long time coming out.  We can make incredible progress.  We can get that unemployment rate coming down.  The-- you know, the whole key is not just-- you know, growing again.  We've got to grow robustly.  That's how you get a lot of job creation.  That's how you get a lot of progress on the unemployment rate.”

To reinforce her point, Alan Greenspan told me “Between now and then, largely because of people coming back into the labor force, almost irrespective of how much employment expands, the unemployment rate will probably stay high.  I don’t think it will stay at 10 percent, but it’s not going down very quickly or very dramatically.”

He added, “You still have a long way to go before you get more normal characteristics in the economy.” 

Watch the video for additional insights from Mitt Romney, Jim Cramer and Jennifer Granholm.  

What I have my eye on 12/10

1. "There will be times when nations - acting individually or in concert - will find the use of force not only necessary but morally justified." -  President Obama accepts the Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo. 
2. "This is our war as well as America's."  - Pakistan's president Asif Ali Zardari tries to reach out to the American public with an op-ed in the New York Times.
3. Robin Wright claims that failure in Afghanistan could mark the formal end of the unipolar world, and the consequences might "dwarf those of the defeat in Vietnam."
4. While the Republicans are scoring political points by criticizing the science behind global warming, will their position come back to haunt them in the long term?

Some reads from across the Web, 12/9

1. A watchdog group has found the $700 billion bailout has worked, sort of.  The group determined that the money helped avert a major economic meltdown, but failed to achieve most of the goals set by Congress.
2. The specifics of the Senate’s compromise on the public option are beginning to leak.
3. Gen. McChrystal said something in yesterday’s House Armed Services Committee hearing that should have everyone concerned, writes Slate’s Fred Kaplan.
4. In 2006, Dick Cheney reportedly said, “If there’s a 1% chance that Pakistani scientists are helping Al Qaeda build or develop a nuclear weapon, we have to treat it as a certainty in terms of our response.” Tom Friedman thinks this doctrine should be applied to climate change.
5. The Washington Post is getting heat today for publishing an op-ed by Sarah Palin calling for the president to boycott Copenhagen.  Marc Ambinder rehashes the piece with some annotations.

Recap of Sunday's show on Afghanistan

 

Barack Obama, who as a presidential candidate stressed his opposition to the war in Iraq, is now a war president trying to win both in Afghanistan and in the court of public opinion.
 
Joining me today were the leaders of Obama’s national security team: Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.  The two spent this week answering criticism of the new war strategy - both from Democrats opposed to escalating the war and Republicans opposed to any timeline for withdrawal. 
 
Regardless of the July 2011 benchmark Obama mentioned in his speech Tuesday night, Gates told me that U.S. forces do not expect to all pack up and leave Afghanistan 18 months from now.  “They are not leaving - in July of 2011,” he said.  “Some handful or some small number or whatever the conditions permit, will begin to withdraw at that time.”   

That’s the question both Gates and Clinton have been hammered on all week by Congressional committees: How long are we going to be there?  Clinton indicated that, at best, July 2011 will be the beginning of the end – a full transition out of the country will likely take five years.  

In his response, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) remained critical of any indication of a timetable for withdrawal.  “To send the message that you're going to leave at a certain date is not the way to convince the enemy that you're there to beat 'em,” he said.

 

Sen. McCain also weighed in on Sarah Palin, Ben Bernanke and Osama bin Laden.  Plus, Bob Woodward of The Washington Post and Tom Friedman of The New York Times gave their analyses of the U.S. future in Afghanistan.  For Friedman, the question is not how we end in Afghanista, but how we start.

 

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Some reads for today, 12/4

1. The White House economic team is breathing a short sigh of relief with today's release of new jobless numbers.  The unemployment rate fell in what was one of the strongest employment reports since the recession began.
2. Questions surround when the president will begin removing troops from Afghanistan.  Tina Brown of The Daily Beast believes the confusion is no mistake.
3. “No-drama Obama” will need to live up to his nickname to get himself through 2010, writes David Broder.
4. Three Secret Service agents have been put on administrative leave because of the party-crashing couple who conned their way into the White House state dinner.
5. Democrats are more popular than Republicans – at least when it came to Google searches this year.

What I'm viewing today, 12/2

1. The world was watching the president last night as he announced his decision to send 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan.  Here are some reactions from U.S. allies.
2. Here at home, pundits wasted no time praising and condemning Obama’s plan.
3. A Wall Street Journal editorial argues that we are now at the point in the health care debate when all that matters is getting a bill passed.
4. The couple who crashed the White House state dinner has received a real invitation to an exclusive Washington gathering.  But it may not be the type of event they want to attened, writes Maureen Dowd.

Some reads for 12/1

1. President Obama issued order that will commit an additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan.  The first Marines should be in Afghanistan by Christmas.
2. Bob Herbert laments Obama's decision on Afghanistan, calling it a "tragic mistake" and the "easier choice."  David Brooks sympathizes with Obama, and commends him for "taking brave political risks" and "improving his options" in Afghanistan.
3. Dick Cheney suggests that Obama is projecting weakness and allowing politics to influence his decisions on Afghanistan.
4. Will the Republican National Committee impose a "purity test" on its future candidates?  Some top Republicans aren't thrilled with the idea.